The Asian Handicap being given for Gil Vicente in this match is 2 balls and this is where I think the bookies have got it wrong.
It it true that Benfica are 2nd in the standings, and also have won their last five matches prior to tonight's match and could go top with just a win [of any margin] considering that they are just a point below Porto in the standings.
Benfica's home form reads as 8 wins and just 2 defeats with 25 goals scored and only 6 conceded. Their last three home matches they beat Pacos Ferreira 3-0, Academica 1-0 and Vitoria Setubal 3-0.
Interestingly since the start of the year they have never won two matches in a row at home more then 2 goals consecutively. Starting from the 2-2 draw with Porto on 13 January, then they beat V Setubal 3-0, then narrowly won against Academica 1-0 and then it was a 3-0 against Pacos Ferreira.
As for Gil Vicente, they are 13th in the standings with 19 points. Their away form has seen them won 2, drawn 4 and lost 4, scoring 9 and conceding 16. They are currently on a 5 match winless streak since beating Maritimo 4-2 at home on the start of February. But when you take into account that they lost to Nacional and Sporting CP sides above them by just one goal (other then the relegation battle they lost to bottom side Vitoria Setubal 1-0), then the 2 balls handicap does seem high.
Their last three away games have seen them drew with Moreirense 0-0, lost to Vitoria Setubal 1-0 and lost to FC Porto 5-0. Other then the big defeat to leaders Porto 5-0, they don't conceded more then two goals on their travels. And Benfica have not scored consecutively more then 3 goals since the start of the year and considering they have got a Europa League return game with Bordeaux to come away, I will stick my neck out here for them to get just a one goal margin win here.
Better's Prediction: Over 2.5
